Contributors Fundamental Analysis Pound Yawns as Mfg. Order Expectations Surge

Pound Yawns as Mfg. Order Expectations Surge

The British pound is showing limited movement in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3240, up 0.05% on the day. In the UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing climbed to GBP 7.5 billion, above the forecast of GBP 6.6 billion. This marked the highest deficit since April. There was much better news from CBI Industrial Order Expectations, which jumped to 17, crushing the estimate of 3 points. As well, BoE Governor Mark Carney testified about inflation before a parliamentary committee. In the US, Existing Home Sales improved to 5.48 million, beating the forecast of 5.42 million. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at an event in New York City. Wednesday is busy, as the US releases employment, durable goods and consumer confidence reports. Also, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its November policy meeting. In the UK, the government will present the Autumn Forecast Statement.

There was positive news from British CBI Industrial Order Expectations, an important barometer of the manufacturing sector. The indicator surged to 17 points in October, rebounding from the September release of -2 points. Manufacturing indicators continue to point upwards, boosted by strong global demand and a weak British pound. Export order books are at their highest levels since 1995, and the markets are predicting that the export and manufacturing sectors will continue to shine in the fourth quarter.

US construction numbers continue to beat expectations. On Monday, it was the turn of Existing Home Sales, which climbed to a 4-month high. On Friday, Building Permits and Housing Starts impressed the markets. Building Permits for single-family homes jumped to 1.30 million, above the estimate of 1.25 million. The annualized pace of 839,000 building permits in October was the fastest since September 2007. Housing Starts also sparkled, accelerating to 1.29 million, compared to an estimate of 1.19 million. The catalyst for the strong numbers were hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused massive damage in the southern part of the US. With rebuilding efforts well underway, construction numbers should remain strong in the fourth quarter.

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