The Canadian dollar has recorded small gains in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2703, up 0.13% on the day. On the release front, the sole Canadian event is the annual budget. In the US, it’s a busy day. Core Durable Goods Orders are forecast to dip to 0.4%, and Durable Goods Orders are expected to decline 2.4%. Another key release is CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to climb to 126.2 points. As well, Jerome Powell will testify before a congressional committee.
It’s budget day for Ottawa, and the markets are not expecting any bombshells from finance minister Bill Morneau. In October, the Trudeau government revised downwards the deficit for the 2017-2018 fiscal year to C$19.9 billion. The Canadian economy was steady in the fourth quarter, so the deficit could be even lower. The budget is not expected to show any major spending, so it’s likely that the release will not shake up the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency lost ground last week, and touched its lowest level since late December.
All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who took over from Janet Yellen earlier this month. Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, his first major appearance as head of the central bank. Powell received a rude welcome from the markets just after moving into his new office, as the global stock market correction erased some $4 trillion in valuations. The volatility forced Powell to make a public statement, reassuring the markets that the Fed was closely monitoring the situation.
How will the US dollar react to Powell’s testimony before the House Finance Services Committee? After the recent turmoil in the stock markets, Powell may opt to play it safe and keep away from any splashy headlines, which could lead to more fluctuation in the markets. Powell could choose to focus on the strong US economy and the Fed trimming its balance sheet, and steer away from a discussion of accelerating rate policy in order to head off higher inflation.
