Yesterday, the second TV debate of all 11 presidential candidates took place, which again saw Emmanuel Macron as one of the candidates with the most convincing performance (21% of viewers) after Jean-Luc Mélenchon (25%). On the other hand, Marine Le Pen was rated only the fourth most convincing candidate (11%), according to a snap poll by Elabe conducted right after the debate. In the same poll, Macron was also seen as the candidate with the best programme by 23% of viewers. A third and final debate is scheduled for 20 April but it is currently unclear if it will take place, as some candidates have complained that it is being held too close to the first round on 23 April.
The impact of these debates should not be underestimated, and we are likely to see polling for Macron and Mélenchon move up after their convincing performance yesterday. Macron’s support surged after the first TV debate, when he was seen as the most convincing candidate and similarly for Melénchon, who due to his performance has now overtaken the Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon in the polls (see Chart 1). For now, it still seems to come down to a second round run-off on 7 May between Le Pen and Macron, where the latter is projected to win at around 61% and the margin of winning for Macron has also stayed relatively stable since the beginning of the year (see Chart 2).
However, the overall electorate is still not too determined in their voting intentions, as only 62% express certainty in their choice of candidate. Hence, the election outcome remains unpredictable and will to a large extent also depend on the participation rate. Traditionally, participation for presidential elections has been relatively high at around 80%. However, recent polls have suggested that voter turnout might be lower this time, only around 66-76%, due to widespread dissatisfaction with the political class. Should this be the case, it would be likely to boost Le Pen’s chances of winning, as her supporters remain the most certain of their vote at 81%, compared to only 63% for Macron supporters (see Chart 3). For the short-term market implications of a Le Pen win, see Le Pen – What If? Implications for Euro and Nordic markets, 13 February 2017
