The Australian dollar holds in red in early Wednesday’s trading and reverses a part of previous day’s strong rally, pressured by weaker than expected Australian CPI data (inflation q/q was up 0.4% in Q3, missing forecast for 0.5% rise).
Also, weaker than expected China PMI’s added to AUD’s negative stance Wednesday.
The Aussie failed to benefit from positive signal on previous day’s bullish outside day pattern (Wednesday’s rally peaked at 0.7122 – one week high but was unable to hold gains and the price returned to multi-day congestion).
Fresh bearish momentum is building on daily chart, keeping the downside vulnerable, as 10/20SMA’s are returning to bearish setup.
However, near-term mode remains directionless while the price holds between 0.7040 base and falling 30SMA (0.7135) with break of either side to generate initial direction signal.
Bearish scenario requires sustained break below 0.7040 base and close below psychological 0.7000 support to confirm continuation of larger downtrend.
Conversely, lift above 30SMA would provide relief, but extension and close above falling 55SMA (0.7182) is needed to signal reversal.
Res: 0.7122, 0.7135, 0.7159, 0.7182
Sup: 0.7072, 0.7050, 0.7040, 0.7020
