The Euro extends weakness from 1.1147 high into fourth straight day, focusing again key support at 1.0891 (daily cloud base/Tenkan-sen/50% retracement of 1.0635/1.1147).
Double downside rejection in past two days and failure to close below cracked Fibo support at 1.0951 (38.2%) suggests that bears face strong headwinds with today’s action expected to give more hints whether bears are going to pause above 1.0891 pivot or we will eventually see clear break lower.
Daily studies remain mixed (rising momentum/south-heading stochastic/flat RSI) and lack clearer direction signal, with fundamentals expected to remain main driver today.
The dollar is up in early Thursday’s trading and maintains pressure on the single currency, with focus on release of US weekly jobless claims which are expected to rise further (3.5mln f/c vs previous week’s 3.2mln). Downbeat data could slow dollar’s rally on strong safe-have demand and inflate Euro.
The first scenario on repeated downside rejection and close above 1.0951 that would temporarily sideline bears, although without significant upside action while the price action holds below psychological 1.10 barrier and daily cloud top (1.1008).
The second scenario sees firm break and close below 1.0831 that would spark fresh acceleration lower and expose targets at 1.0831/00 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0635/1.1147 / round-figure support).
Res: 1.0951, 1.0967, 1.1008, 1.1026
Sup: 1.0891, 1.0869, 1.0831, 1.0800
