Silver bulls surrendered to the 200-period moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart earlier this week and shifted sideways, pausing the uptrend at a fresh high of 15.50.
Downside risks seem to be increasing as the RSI is pointing down to its 50 neural mark and the MACD keeps losing strength below its red signal line. Yet, whether any negative correction will be noticeable will depend on the ascending trendline that has been supporting the market since the plunge to the 11-year low of 11.61.
A cross below the trendline could generate additional losses towards the 50-period SMA that currently coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 18.93-11.61 downleg at 14.41. Running lower, the 13.80 supportive area could be the next target, a break of which could open the door for the 13.34-13.00 area where the 23.6% Fibonacci is also placed.
Alternatively, if the trendline again pushes the price up, the 50% Fibonacci of 15.27 and the 200-period SMA could once again block the way towards the 16.13-16.50 area. Higher, the bulls should overcome the wall around 17.32 to put the market back in a neutral mode in the bigger picture.
Summarizing, silver is likely to come under pressure in the short-term, though only a decisive close below the ascending trendline would reduce exposure in the market.
