AUDJPY has been losing ground in September, pressured by a general deterioration in market sentiment. The pair has crossed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since April, which is worrisome, but not enough to shatter the broader bullish picture. The daily price structure still consists of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the trend cautiously positive. A move below 72.70 and the 200-day SMA is required to change that.
Short-term oscillators echo the latest move lower, with the RSI testing its 30 zone and the MACD turning negative after several months of being positive.
If the bears stay in charge, their next target would likely be the 73.90 zone. A downside break could open the door for a test of 72.70, which overlaps with the 200-day SMA. A violation of that crossroads would mark a lower low on the daily chart, turning the broader outlook to neutral and setting the stage for more declines towards 71.10.
Should buyers return, initial resistance to upside moves may be found near 75.60, before the 50-day SMA – currently at 76.26 – comes into play. If that gives way too, a tougher barrier may be the 76.80 region, where the 20-day SMA is also located.
In short, the latest decline is concerning, but not enough to derail the bigger uptrend just yet. A decisive move below 72.70 is needed to convince investors that the uptrend is over.
