The Euro started trading on Monday in a negative mode and extended weakness following a double rejection at pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.1991 (38.2% of 1.2242/1.1835) reinforced nearby psychological 1.20 resistance.
Fresh bears probe again through important supports at 1.1930 zone (5DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.1835/1.1990 recovery leg / base of thick 4-hr cloud) close below which would further weaken near-term structure and signal lower top (1.1990).
On the other side, Friday’s strong downside rejection which left long-tailed daily candle and difficulties to clearly break 1.1930 pivot, seen in early Monday’s trading, signal that bears face headwinds here.
Daily studies are in negative setup (rising bearish momentum, formation of 20/100DMA bear-cross, stochastic approaching overbought territory) with repeated close below falling 10DMA to add to negative signals, however repeated failure to clear 1.1930 support zone would signal that bears lack strength.
Cracked Fibo support at 1.1887 (61.8% of 1.1602/1.2349) remains key level at the downside as recent failure to sustain break here generated initial signal of bear-trap that keeps near-term bias in positive mode and hopes for renewed attack at key 1.1990/1.2000 zone alive.
Expect initial bearish signal on firm break of 1.1930 while close below 1.1887 would confirm negative stance and risk retest of 1.1835 low (Mar 9).
Conversely, sustained break above 1.20 zone would neutralize and signal recovery extension.
Res: 1.1957, 1.1990, 1.2000, 1.2036.
Sup: 1.1910, 1.1887, 1.1868, 1.1835.
