AUDUSD seems to be stuck between the directionless Ichimoku lines and is consolidating slightly above the Ichimoku cloud. The flattening 50-day simple moving average (SMA) appears to be providing some footing for buyers, while all SMAs are defending the broader bullish price structure.
The Ichimoku lines and the short-term oscillators are suggesting that crucial directional momentum has subsided, however the oscillators are indicating a marginal improvement in sentiment. The MACD has ever so slightly shoved above its red trigger line – which has mostly merged with the zero threshold – while the RSI is maintaining a push higher into bullish territory from the 50 level. The stochastic oscillators’ %K line has poked above the %D line and thus is giving slight credence to the upside.
Should the positive traction off the 50-day SMA gain impetus and clearly nudge the price above the immediate obstacle of 0.7837, the bulls could then propel the pair for a retest of the near 37-month top of 0.8006. Successfully resuming the ascent, buyers may encounter intense constraints from the 0.8094 level, which happens to be the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the down leg from 0.7413 to 0.6990, and from the adjacent resistance band of 0.8135-0.8163 overhead. If the bulls power over these borders, the price may then aim for the 0.8294 high, identified in January 2015 and the 0.8375 barrier.
To the downside, support could originate from the 50-day SMA at 0.7745 and the nearby low located at 0.7700. Diving from here, sellers may face the key base of 0.7563-0.7620, reinforced by the cloud’s lower frontier and the 100-period SMA. Should a more profound retracement unfold, the bears could then examine the support zone of 0.7372-0.7461 – intensifying negative pressures in the pair.
Summarizing, AUDUSD maintains a bullish tone above the SMAs and the 0.7563-0.7620 foundation.
