AUDUSD surrendered to the dovish RBA press conference early on Tuesday, with the price giving up its multi-day battle with the tough 0.7531 resistance territory to seek support near the familiar region of 0.7460.
The pair has also breached the red Tenkan-sen line after trading above it for a month, confirming the gloomy mood in the market. The RSI and the MACD are sending some discouraging signals as well, with the former turning sharply down in the bullish region and the latter crossing below its red signal line.
The Stochastics have not touched oversold levels yet. Sellers may therefore keep driving the market in the coming sessions, though some consolidation around the nearby 0.7460 support area and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8006 – 0.7105 downleg cannot be excluded.
Should the bears clear the 0.7460 floor, the 0.7400 level may immediately add some footing under the price as it did in mid-October. If not, the decline could sharpen towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.7317, unless the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) cuts the sell-off at 0.7360.
Alternatively, if the 0.7460 base proves solid enough for an upside reversal, the bulls may push harder for a close above the 0.7531 ceiling and the 200-day SMA slightly above at 0.7558. Note the 50% Fibonacci is also positioned in the same neighborhood. Hence, any significant step higher from here could bolster buying appetite towards the swing high of 0.7615 from June 25. Beyond that, the door would open for the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7719.
Summarizing, the short-term risk for AUDUSD seems to be leaning on the negative side, but the bears will need to breach the 0.7460 bar to confirm that.
