The Euro fell further on Monday, extending weakness below the temporary base that was formed at 1.0757 during past two weeks.
Fresh weakness emerged after last week’s limited recovery was strongly rejected and daily candle with long upper shadow, left on Thursday, weighs on near-term action.
Larger downtrend looks for a final push towards key support at 1.0635 (2020 low), supported by bearish technical studies on all larger timeframes, with the pair being on track for the fourth consecutive bearish month and the biggest monthly drop since June 2021, as strong demand for safe-haven dollar, further deflated the single currency.
Bears were so far mildly impacted by better than expected German data which showed surprise rise in German business morale in April (91.8 from 90.8 in March and 89.1 f/c), as subsequent bounce stalled under initial barrier at 1.0757 (former base).
However, the Euro may find firmer ground on signals that ECB policymakers are ready to end their asset purchase program at the earliest possible time and start raising interest rates as soon as July and not later than
September, prompted by surging inflation, although this could be seen as a speculation, as ECB President Lagarde said last week that bond buying should end early in the third quarter and will be followed by rate hikes.
Res: 1.0757; 1.0813; 1.0858; 1.0895.
Sup: 1.0700; 1.0650; 1.0635; 1.0570.
