WTI oil edged higher on Friday following strong downside rejection on Thursday, but the structure remains fragile, due to demand concerns, fueled by worries that recent rate hikes by major central banks and particularly aggressive Fed, would lead to economic slowdown.
The fundamentals remain key oil price drivers but focus has turned from supply which was affected by the war in Ukraine, towards the actions of central banks and raising fears that major economies are sliding into recession.
Technical picture on daily chart is mixed, as larger bullish structure has been dented by loss of positive momentum (14-d momentum indicator is heading south and about to break into negative territory), with negative signals being reinforced with expectations for strong weekly loss that would also complete Doji reversal pattern on weekly chart.
Friday’s close below 20DMA (116.40)would keep immediate bias with bears, but extension below 111.91 (cracked Fibo 38.2% of $92.92/$123.65) is need to confirm bearish near-term stance and open way for deeper drop towards $110.00 (psychological) and $108.28 (50% retracement).
Only bounce and close above 10DMA (118.31) would sideline downside risk and unmask $120 pivot.
Res: 115.47; 116.40; 117.03; 118.31.
Sup: 113.05; 111.91; 110.41; 110.00.
