EURUSD is still failing to print a daily close below the parity level, despite the free fall towards the 20-year low of 0.9950 on Thursday. Chances for an upside reversal are increasing as the technical indicators are turning higher. The MACD is weakening its bearish movement, while the RSI jumped above the 30 level, suggesting an oversold market.
In case a rebound takes place, immediate resistance could come from the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0300 ahead of the 1.0345 key level. Higher still, the 40-day SMA and the medium-term descending trend line could also restrict upside movements, though only a close above 1.0635 would confirm the start of a possible uptrend.
Alternatively, another step lower may reach a crucial support at 1.0000 again where the price stopped several times last week. Should this prove a weak obstacle this time, the sell-off could pick up speed until the 0.9950 bottom, where any violation would bring more pressure to the market. Specifically, the price could stretch further down to test the 0.9600 support, registered in August 2002.
In the medium-term picture the pair is still strongly bearish as long as it holds well below the falling trend line, and more importantly under the 200-day SMA, which is still falling.
