Natural gas futures (April delivery) went into freefall in recent months, erasing all the gains since the Ukraine war started and losing further ground beyond that. Sellers are currently knocking on the door of the 2.10 region, after a decline of 78% from the highs last year.
Momentum studies point to a minor stabilization in the market, although bearish forces are still in control overall. The RSI seems to be flattening but below its 50 line, while the MACD has just crossed back below its trigger line.
If sellers successfully slice below the 2.10 territory, that would signal a continuation of the intense downtrend. In this case, the next barrier to halt the decline might be 1.85, a region that served both as support and resistance back in 2020.
Should buyers manage to take the reins, the first obstacle to the upside might be the 2.65 level, which overlaps with the 50-day moving average. A successful violation would turn the focus to the recent high near 3.00. The bulls would need to clear that level to have any hopes of a trend reversal.
In summary, the outlook appears decisively negative and a successful break below 2.10 would reinforce that notion.
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