Aussie has been bearish since start of the year, with a higher degree A-B-C decline that is still in progress after a recent sharp turn down from 0.69 area. We see wave (C) in play down to 78.6% Fib, where pair may look for new buyers. However, before the trend may turn here, we need five subwaves within wave (C), which is not the case yet when looking at the 4h time frame. Notice that there can be a new drop after subwave (4) rally which is not far away as extended wave (3) can be in late stages here around 2023 lows.
Regarding Aussie, the most important “indicator” these days seem to be USDCNH. Still in an uptrend, and has room for 2022 highs after the recent fourth-wave setback. Pair has to complete the current upward pattern, before we may start looking for risk-on again. So as long USDCNH is higher, aussie can face more weakness.
AUD/USD 4h Elliott Wave analysis
AUD/USD Elliott Wave analysis
USD/CNH vs Aussie, Kiwi, Gold, es_f
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