The pair ticked higher on Tuesday, leaving temporary footstep at 112.36 (Mon/Tue lows) intact but remaining below initial barrier at 112.78 (daily Kijun-sen).
Monday’s close in red and repeated rejection at daily cloud top, as well as repeated failure to close above Kijun-sen, was bearish signal.
Risk of deeper pullback on loss of 112.36 handle and extension below 111.96 (daily Tenkan-sen) remains in play and scenario would include extension towards layers of strong supports, provided by converged 10SMA (111.80), 200SMA (111.68) and 100SMA (111.57).
Alternative scenario requires sustained break above cloud top (113.12) to signal continuation of recovery from 110.83 (27 Nov low).
Res: 112.78, 113.12, 113.24, 113.81
Sup: 112.36, 111.96, 111.80, 111.68
