OECD outlined two “equally probable scenarios” for the world economy in a report released today. In the “single-hit scenario”, second wave of coronavirus pandemic is avoided. Global economic activity would fall -6% in 2020, with unemployment rates jumping to 9.2%, up from 5.4% in 2019. “living standards fall less sharply than with a second wave but five years of income growth is lost across the economy by 2021”.
In the “double-hit scenario”, a second wave of infections hits before year-end. A renewed outbreak of infections would trigger a return to lock-downs. World economic output would plummet -7.6% this year, before climbing back 2.8% in 2021. OECD unemployment rate would nearly double to 10% with little recovery in jobs by 2021.
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