In the latest Economy Survey of Australia, OECD downgraded the country’s GDP growth to 4.0% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, from May’s forecast of 5.1% and 3.4% respectively. It said the upcoming post-restriction recovery may be “more gradual than in past episodes”, as it will “occur in an environment of higher virus transmission”. COVID-19 outbreaks in other states than New South Wales and Victoria, could deepen the economic shock. “Any ratcheting up of tensions with China could further weaken trade activity.”
OECD also pointed out that underlying inflation has undershot RBA’s target band for an extended period of time. It suggested that RBA should “conduct a monetary policy framework review that is broad in scope, transparent and involves consultation with a wide variety of relevant stakeholders.”
In response, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, “it’s something I will give consideration to in terms of looking at the RBA, looking at the monetary policy settings and learning from the experience through the pandemic. The RBA has performed very well through this crisis, its policy response has been in sync and coordinated with the government’s fiscal response.”
OECD press release, blog post, and report.
