AUD/USD reversed after breaching 0.6804 to 0.6817 last week, and fell sharply to close at 0.6640. The development suggests that consolidation pattern from 0.6563 has completed with three waves to 0.6817. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 0.6563. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. On the upside, above 0.6705 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6853) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7128) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
