AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD rebounded further to as high as 0.7809 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week first but another rise is expected as long as 0.7725 minor support holds. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).