EUR/JPY’s consolidation form 126.75 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more sideway trading could be seen. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 124.31 support holds. On the upside, break of 126.75 will resume whole rally from 114.42. However, break of 124.31 should confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 123.44) and below.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.
