USD/CAD’s rise form 1.2005 resumed last week and reached as high as 1.2947. As a temporary top was formed there. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.2421 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.2947 will target 1.3022 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Firm break of 1.4689 will pave the way to 1.6196 high next.
