USD/CAD rebounded to as high as 1.2687 last week but formed a temporary top then on loss of momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2489 minor support holds. Above 1.2687 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to 1.2919 resistance next. However, below 1.2489 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2246 again.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.2246 is mixing up the medium term outlook. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is staying below falling 55 day EMA, hence, the bearish case is in favor. That is, fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.2061 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. However, firm break of 1.2919 will revive the case of medium term reversal and turn outlook bullish.
In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.
