USD/JPY – 111.08
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 111.23
Kijun-Sen level : 111.11
Ichimoku cloud top : 110.80
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 110.60
Original strategy :
Buy at 110.90, Target: 111.90, Stop: 110.55
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
New strategy :
Buy at 110.60, Target: 111.60, Stop: 110.25
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
As dollar has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 111.59, suggesting consolidation below said resistance at 111.59 would be seen and initial downside risk is seen for test of the upper Kumo (now at 110.80), however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 110.60) would hold and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 111.59 would add credence to our view that further consolidation above recent low at 110.11 would be seen and signal the fall from 112.20 has ended, then a stronger rebound to 111.90-00 would follow but said resistance at 112.20 should hold and choppy trading within 110.11-112.20 would continue.
In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar on dips but one should exit on such rebound. Below the lower Kumo (now at 110.60) would signal top is formed instead, risk weakness to 110.40 but only break of said support at 110.11-13 would confirm medium term decline has resumed for further subsequent fall to 109.80-85 (1.618 times projection of 112.20-111.12 measuring from 111.59) but price should hold above 109.50-55 (100% projection of 112.20-110.27 measuring from 111.46).
