GBP/JPY – 145.80
Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Buy at 142.55, Target: 145.00, Stop: 141.95
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Buy at 144.50, Target: 146.50, Stop: 143.90
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As sterling has retreated after rising to 146.70 earlier today, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 144.90-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 144.40-50 would limit downside and bring another upmove later, break of said resistance at 146.70 would extend recent rise from 135.60 to 147.00-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 147.50-60 and price should falter well below previous chart resistance at 148.45, bring retreat later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy sterling on pullback as 144.40-50 should limit downside. Below 143.80-90 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring correction to support at 143.15, however, reckon downside would be limited to 142.50-55 and price should stay well above previous resistance at 142.10-15, bring another upmove later.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
