GBP/JPY – 141.70
Original strategy:
Bought at 141.60, Target: 143.60, Stop: 141.00
Position: – 141.60
Target: – 143.60
Stop: – 141.00
New strategy :
Exit long entered at 141.60,
Position: – Long at 141.60
Target: –
Stop:-
Although the British pound resumed recent rise to 143.00 on Friday, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 142.90 and the subsequent retreat dampened our bullishness and downside risk is seen for pullback to 141.55-60, break there would suggest top is possibly formed, then weakness to 141.00 would follow but reckon support at 140.45 would limit downside and price should stay well above support at 140.05.
In view of this, would be prudent to exit long entered at 141.60 and stand aside for now. Above 142.15-20 would bring rebound to 142.50-60 but only break of said Friday’s high at 143.00 would revive bullishness and extend the rise from 139.35 to 143.20 and then 143.50-60, however, upside should be limited to 144.00-10.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
