GBPUSD has bounced back from its March low of 1.2999, crossing above its 50-period simple moving average (SMA) as positive momentum resurfaced. However, the pair is currently trading well below its 200-period SMA and hasn’t yet broken its series of successive lower lows, reinforcing an overall bearish outlook.
Short-term momentum oscillators reflect a positive bias as the RSI is located above its 50 neutral mark. Also, the MACD is found above zero and its red signal line, which indicates that the positive momentum in the price might be gaining further ground.
Should the bulls manage to gain a tight grip, initial resistance might be found at the 1.3194 obstacle, before buyers eye the February low at 1.3271. Crossing above the latter could increase positive momentum, paving the way towards the 200-period SMA currently at 1.3389.
On the flip side, if sellers regain full control, the 50-period SMA currently at 1.3098 might act as the first line of defence. Crossing below this point, the bears might then target the 1.3066 hurdle before taking aim at the March low of 1.2999.
In brief, despite the recent uptick from the March lows and the improved bias, the overall outlook for the pair remains cautiously bearish. For sentiment to change, the series of successive lower lows in the price must stop.
