Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2897; (P) 1.2960; (R1) 1.3001; More…
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3297 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2784 support. Firm break there will likely resume larger down trend from 1.4376 through 1.2661. On the upside, break of 1.3022 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3297 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
