EURUSD Outlook

EUR/USD recovered just ahead of near term falling channel floor and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds. Break of 1.4992 will resume the fall from 1.1848 to retest 1.1408 low next.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1547). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1848 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Further decline should be seen to retest 1.1408 low first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1547). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1848 resumed by breaking through 1.1575 last week. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for retesting 1.1408 first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1542). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.