USD/CHF’s sharp decline last week and break of 0.9582 suggests that fall from 0.9772 has resumed. Initial bias remains is back on the downside for 0.9437 low. Note again that the pair is bounded in medium falling channel and limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783. Break of 0.9427 will extend the whole decline from 1.0342 and carries larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, we’re slightly favoring the case that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we’ll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996. However, firm break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and would target next key support at 0.9072.
