EUR/JPY – 124.79
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Buy at 124.60, Target: 126.50, Stop: 124.00
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Buy at 124.10, Target: 126.10, Stop: 123.50
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
As the single currency has retreated after faltering below resistance at 125.82, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and correction to 124.50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 124.10 would limit downside and bring rebound later, above 125.45-50 would bring retest of 125.82 but break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 126.20-30 and possibly 126.60-70 but reckon 127.00-10 would hold from here.
In view of this, we are inclined to buy euro on further corrective fall. Below 123.60-65 would suggest top has been formed and risk weakness to 123.30-35 and possibly towards 123.00, however, outlook remains consolidative and previous support at 122.56 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
