EUR/CHF edged lower to 1.0811 last week but recovered since then. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD and breach of 1.0924 minor resistance, a short term bottom should be formed. Further rise is in favor this week to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0977) and above. But upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1605 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0811 will resume larger down trend from 1.2004.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
