ECB Monthly Bulletin noted that global survey indications suggest “subdued” economic activity, “but stabilizing”. Risks to global outlook “remain to the downside” amid a “further escalation of trade disputes, high uncertainty related to Brexit and a potentially slower recovery in a number of emerging market economies.” Also, global trade momentum is “expected to remain muted”, as higher tariffs are set to come fully into effect at the end of the year.
Domestically, recent data continue to point to “positive but moderate employment growth” in Eurozone. Rising employment should support household income and consumer spending. Business investment is expected to “remain subdued” in the context of “elevated uncertainty and low profit margins”. Extra Eurozone exports “stagnated” while intraday Eurozone trade “weakened further”. Incoming data point to “moderate but positive” growth in H2. Risks remain on the downside.
