EUR/JPY’s correction from 148.38 extended lower last week and it’s now drawing support from 55 day EMA (now at 143.54). Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 145.02 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 148.38 high. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 133.38 to 148.38 at 142.65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 139.11 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through1 48.38 to 149.76 (2014 high). However, break of 137.32 support argue that a medium term correction has already started to correct the whole up trend from 144.42.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).
