EUR/JPY rose strongly to 145.66 last week but failed to close above 145.55 resistance and treated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week. Current development suggests that rebound from 137.37 is extending. Break of 145.66 will target 148.38 high. However, break of 143.12 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn bias to the downside for 138.81 support instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).
