EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9772 extended to 0.9519 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9641 support turned resistance holds. Rebound from 0.9476 should have completed as a corrective move at 0.9772. Below 0.9519 will bring retest of 0.9476. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 0.9928 to 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.94767 from 0.9772 at 0.9320.
In the bigger picture, with 1.0095 key medium term resistance intact, price actions from 0.9252 (2023 low) are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 0.9928 might be the second leg and break of 0.9476 would bring deeper decline to retest 0.9252 low. But strong support should be seen there to extend the corrective pattern with another rising leg. In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.0095 structural resistance holds.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
