Fed’s Powell opens door to Sep rate cut, markets price In 75% chance of three cuts by year-end

US stocks closed higher overnight as investors cheered Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion that a September rate cut is “on the table.” Nevertheless, he emphasized that any decision would hinge on the “totality” of incoming economic data.

In the post-FOMC meeting press conference, Powell highlighted that recent Q2 inflation data has “added to our confidence,” and continued positive data would further solidify this confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target.

He explained that the committee’s “broad sense” is that the economy is nearing a point where reducing the policy rate could be appropriate. The decision will depend on whether the overall data, evolving economic outlook, and balance of risks align with increased confidence in controlling inflation while maintaining a robust labor market.

“If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table for as soon as the next meeting in September,” Powell stated. Meanwhile, he clarified that a 50bps rate cut is “not something we’re thinking about right now.”

Market reactions were immediate. Fed funds futures are now pricing in over a 100% probability of a 25bps cut in September. More strikingly, the likelihood of three rate cuts by the end of this year has surged to over 75%, up from less than 60% a week ago.

Technically, it appears that 55 D EMA is providing enough support for S&P 500 for now. Focus is back on 5585.34 resistance. Break there will argue that correction from 5669.67 has already completed at 5390.95. Larger up trend would then be ready to resume for new record highs.