EUR/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that fall from 163.86 has completed at 155.14 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 154.40. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 163.86 resistance first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. On the downside, though, below 158.31 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.52).
