US. Conference Board Consumer Confidence tumbled from 104.1 to 98.3 in February, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021 and falling well short of expectations at 103.3. The deterioration was broad-based, with Present Situation Index dropping -3.4 points to 136.5, while Expectations Index sank -9.3 points to 72.9. This is the first time since June 2024 that the Expectations Index has fallen below the critical threshold of 80, which historically signals elevated recession risk.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, highlighted that consumer sentiment has now declined for three consecutive months, pushing the index to the bottom of its two-year range. She pointed out that pessimism about future business conditions, income, and employment prospects has worsened, with job market expectations hitting a ten-month low.
A key concern is the sharp rise in inflation expectations, which surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. Guichard attributed this to a combination of sticky inflation and a spike in household staple prices, as well as the anticipated impact of new trade tariffs. Notably, mentions of trade and tariffs in consumer surveys have surged to levels not seen since 2019.
