USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week but upside is capped below 0.9053 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9053 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.9200 has already completed at 0.8911. Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.9200 resistance. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 0.9131) will indicate that the third leg has already started. However, rejection by 55 M EMA again, followed by break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317, will pave the way back to 0.7065.
