EUR/JPY edged higher to 162.34 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 158.87 support holds. On the upside, break of 162.34 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, as another rising leg in the consolidation pattern from 154.40.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.45).
