GBP/USD fell further to 1.3008 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.
In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.
. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.){kind=link}