Currently trading at 0.79952, having recovered losses from earlier in today’s session, USD/CHF is up +0.42% in today’s session.
Having recently suffered its worst weekly performance since June, falling by 1.38% in week 46, dollar-franc now looks for support near the key level of 0.8000, having recently formed a triple bottom on the daily timeframe.
Otherwise, markets now eye an all-important FOMC Minutes release tomorrow.
What’s next for USD/CHF?
USD/CHF: Key takeaways 18/11/2025
- Succumbing to bearish pressure in last week’s trading, USD/CHF has found some support in the past few sessions and is currently looks to secure a three-day winning streak
- While changing expectations of Fed monetary policy is offering some short-term upside to the dollar, consistent safe haven flows and a recent US-Switzerland trade agreement continue to cement the franc’s position as best-performing major currency year-to-date
- With the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled only three short weeks from today, markets now turn their attention to tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes release, with markets already readjusting expectations of another 25 BPS cut to end 2025
USD/CHF: Safe haven flows, trade deals & a hawkish Fed
While if I had a franc for every time I’ve mentioned safe-haven flows when talking about USD/CHF this year, I’d probably be able to buy a fair few cups of coffee, the fact remains that geopolitical tensions, dubious sovereign debt levels, and a shake-up to global trade all continue to add to the premium for renowned safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc.
While in years previous, much of this demand for more secure and reliable stores of wealth would have split somewhat between different currencies, the dollar and the yen have undeniably fallen by the wayside in favour of the franc in terms of safe-haven appeal.
Case in point: the Swiss franc remains the best-performing major currency year to date, with the euro in a close second place.
SXY, EXY, BXY, AXY, CXY, JXY, NXY, DXY, TVC, TradingView,18/11/2025
As ever, let’s break down some of the macroeconomic themes at play in USD/CHF markets.
USD/CHF: Fundamental Analysis 18/11/2025
Safe-haven flows continue to benefit the franc: While I have explained this in full as part of previous coverage, it would be remiss not to mention that an increase in safe-haven demand has been the deciding factor in CHF strength throughout 2025.
Between ballooning US government debt, a downgrade of US sovereign credit, global trade tensions, and continued world conflicts, there is clearly no shortage of tailwinds for safe-haven assets, with the rally in precious metal pricing and franc value sharing some common ground.
While deflationary pressures in the Swiss economy, alongside a rumoured return to negative rates, have somewhat called the franc’s status as ultimate safe-haven into question at times this year, the market has clearly voted with its feet in 2025, with falling dollar value compounding this effect further.
US-Switzerland trade deal: Announced earlier this week, the conclusion of a significant tariff agreement between the United States and Switzerland has offered some upside to the Swiss franc, with whispers of a trade deal between the two countries confirmed and finalised.
While I can’t speak for anyone else, when I think of the Swiss economy, I think of pharmaceuticals, luxury watches, and jewelry, which is, as it happens, far from just anecdotal. The Swiss economy consistently ranks highly in terms of the ratio of total exports to total GDP, particularly when compared to its European counterparts.
As such, and with an economy that relies heavily on exports to countries like the US, any notion of positive developments on trade tariffs will disproportionately benefit the franc, as seen in last week’s trading.
Fed’s hawkish repricing: While the above would support a strengthening of the franc over the dollar, recent upside in USD/CHF pricing suggests there’s something more at play.
That fly in the ointment is recent developments in Fed monetary policy, with an almost certain 25-basis-point cut in December, perhaps not so certain after all.
CME FedWatch, 18/11/2025
To add to a pre-existing hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve, who, to give credit, has consistently attempted to temper market expectations of a rapid easing cycle, Vice Chair Jefferson shared some choice words in a speech yesterday:
“Given that outlook, I supported last month’s decision to reduce our policy rate by 1/4 percentage point. That step was appropriate because I see the balance of risks as having shifted in recent months as downside risks to employment have increased. The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy. The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.”
Vice Chair Jefferson, speaking at the the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri
Fair to say: the Federal Reserve is less dovish than previously thought some weeks ago, primarily on labour market concerns.
As can be expected, a more hawkish Fed is positive for the US dollar, especially considering the SNB currently offers an interest rate of 0.00% compared to the Fed’s 4.00%, marking a significant differential.
USINTR & CHINTR, TradingView,18/11/2025
Markets, now cast their watchful eye totomorrow’s FOMC Minutes release, and will of course be looking for further clues regarding December’s decision.
- Wednesday, November 19th, US FOMC Minutes, 14:00 EST
USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 04/11/2025
USD/CHF: Daily (D1) chart analysis:
USD/CHF, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 18/11/2025
In the spirit of honesty, I would personally steer clear of trading USD/CHF at the moment, at least until price looks to break out of the current range.
Technically, USD/CHF has traded sideways since late July, but it is also entirely at the mercy of Fed commentary in the minutes tomorrow, so the fundamental picture remains somewhat unclear.
If I had to trade, I would be looking to the upside, especially considering the recent triple bottom and pin bar, but again, I’d want further confirmation. In any case:
Price targets and support/resistance levels:
- Price target/Resistance #1 – $0.80575 – 78.6% Fib from previous analysis
- Support #1 – $0.79935 – 78.6% Fib from previous analysis
- Support #2 – $0.79465 – Bottom of range
