As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold has climbed above $4,400 today, setting a new all-time high.
On Friday, when analysing the gold chart, we highlighted a triangle formation and noted strong selling pressure near the previous record high around $4,380, set in October.
However, over the weekend geopolitical tensions intensified following reports that the United States detained an oil tanker linked to Venezuela. At the turn of the week, this resulted in a clear triangle breakout (as indicated by the arrow):
→ during the second half of Friday’s session, gold moved above the upper boundary of the pattern;
→ at the Asian open, the price turned higher after retesting that level, with former resistance acting as support.
As a result, concerns about a potential armed conflict involving the US have shifted the balance of supply and demand decisively higher.
The bullish momentum has justified the construction of an ascending channel. It is worth noting that the RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory. Intraday trading during the US session could therefore bring some corrective pullback, with potential support coming from:
→ the lower boundary of the newly formed channel;
→ the area between the previous peak at $4,380 and the psychological $4,000 level.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, structural demand from central banks combined with falling interest rates could drive gold prices towards $4,900 by the end of 2026.
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