At the opening of Monday’s session on 12 January, gold (XAU/USD) gapped higher and briefly moved above the psychological $4,600 level, setting a new all-time high.
Bullish drivers:
→ Geopolitical tensions. Following developments in Venezuela, market attention has shifted to unrest in Iran and renewed discussion around the United States’ interest in Greenland, whether through purchase or other means.
→ Renewed friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Over the weekend, Jerome Powell stated that he had received threats of criminal prosecution, possibly linked to his stance on interest-rate cuts, which differs from President Trump’s view.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
Seven days ago, on 5 January, our analysis of the gold chart:
→ identified an ascending price channel;
→ highlighted the $4,400 level;
→ outlined a scenario in which the bullish trend could resume after a rebound from the lower boundary of the channel, with $4,400 acting as support.
That scenario has played out. As indicated by the arrow:
→ the market initially pulled back from the channel median;
→ however, as prices approached the $4,400 area, selling pressure faded, and a renewed wave of bullish sentiment pushed XAU/USD to a fresh record high.
Gold is now trading in the upper half of the active ascending channel, signalling overall demand dominance. The strong morning impulse has generated overbought signals on the RSI and increased the likelihood of a pullback. That said, any correction is likely to be limited, given:
→ potential support from the channel median and the $4,500–4,516 zone;
→ a highly tense and supportive fundamental backdrop.
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