GBP/USD Rejection Risk Grows Ahead Of Crucial UK GDP

Key Highlights

  • GBP/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.3500 support.
  • It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3640 on the 4-hour chart.
  • EUR/USD struggled to continue higher above 1.1920.
  • The UK GDP could grow 0.2% in Q4 2025 (Preliminary) (QoQ).

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh upward move above 1.3550 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD surpassed 1.3600 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3640. The pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3869 swing high to the 1.3508 low.

The pair is stable above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face hurdles near 1.3700.

The next stop for the bulls might be 1.3735 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3869 swing high to the 1.3508 low. A close above 1.3735 could open the doors for more gains.

In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward 1.3785. Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh move to 1.3880. Immediate support could be 1.3580. The first major area for the bulls might be near 1.3550. The main support sits at 1.3500, below which the pair might gain bearish momentum. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.3320.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair faced hurdles near 1.1920 and might again decline to 1.1780 if the bears remain in action.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

  • UK GDP for Q4 2025 (Preliminary) (QoQ) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.1% previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 222K, versus 231K previous.