USD/JPY’s steep decline and break of 156.10 support last week confirms that a short term top was at least formed at 159.44. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, price actions from there should be correcting whole five-wave up trend from 139.87. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.41 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
