EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.6421 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6979).
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6603) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
.){kind=link}