Key takeaways
- Extreme oil volatility amid geopolitical risks: West Texas Intermediate crude oil has swung violently during the ongoing US–Iran war 2026, rallying to a 4-year high of $119.54, plunging to $76.83, and then rebounding as fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz intensified.
- IEA stockpile release fails to cap prices: Despite the International Energy Agency announcing a record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release by G-7 nations, oil prices surged again as Iran escalated retaliatory attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure and threatened tanker traffic.
- Technical trend remains bullish above key support: WTI has held its ascending trendline support with $88.36 as the key short-term level; holding above it keeps the bullish uptrend intact toward $102.25 and $116–$119, while a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward $81–$76.
Oil prices have swung sharply in both directions since the start of the week, reacting to rapidly shifting geopolitical developments surrounding the US–Iran war 2026, which has now entered its 13th day. Heightened uncertainty over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, has kept energy markets highly volatile.
On Monday, 9 March 2026, the West Texas (WTI) crude oil rallied hard by 30% at the Asian open to hit a 4-year high of $119.54/barrel before it tumbled by 35% to print an intraday low of $76.83 on Tuesday, 10 March 2026’s US session; due to US President Trump’s remarks that touted the “end of the US-Iran war is soon” and the expected historical amount of coordinated release of stockpile of oil reserves among G-7 nations of more than 183 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
On Wednesday, 11 March 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) made the official announcement to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves of G-7 nations, its largest ever release, with 172 million barrels coming from the US.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states’ oil assets overshadowed the IEA’s historical stockpile release
However, WTI crude oil surged by 13% despite news of a historic stockpile release by the International Energy Agency, reaching an intraday high of $96 during the Asian session on 12 March 2026 at the time of writing.
Iran has continued to intensify its retaliatory attacks on the oil assets of other Gulf countries, on top of the “indirect closure” of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has threatened to destroy any “unfriendly” oil tankers passing through the strait.
Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.
WTI Crude Oil – Held at ascending trendline support from 26 February 2026
Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 12 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)
The recent declines seen in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) on Tuesday, 10 March, and Wednesday, 11 March have managed to stall at a minor ascending trendline support in place since the 26 February 2026 low of $63.68 that kickstarted the most recent bullish impulsive up move sequence of 87% to print the current 4-year high of $119.54.
Watch the $88.36 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the current minor bullish up leg in the West Texas Oil CFD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at $102.25, and a clearance above it may see a retest on $116.56/119.54 next in the first step.
However, a break with an hourly close below $88.36 negates the bullish tone to expose the next intermediate supports at $81.85 and $77.26/76.83. A break below $76.83 increases the odds of a further minor corrective decline to mean-revert towards $69.80 and $63.68 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).
Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil
- The recent declines seen in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) on Tuesday, 10 March, and Wednesday, 11 March have managed to stall at a minor ascending trendline support in place since the 26 February 2026 low of $63.68 that kickstarted the most recent bullish impulsive up move sequence of 87% to print the current 4-year high of $119.54.
- The hourly RSI momentum indicator has formed a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.
