USD/JPY’s rise from 139.87 resumed by breaking through 160.71 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.94 high first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next. On the downside, break of 160.58 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.17) holds.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
